Consumer Spending Shifts: Restaurant Delivery Sales Falter in January

The latest figures from CGA by NIQ’s Hospitality at Home Tracker reveal a decline in restaurant delivery sales across the UK, marking the first year-on-year drop since June 2023. January saw delivery sales at leading restaurant groups fall by 1% compared to the same period in 2024 as consumers tightened their budgets following the festive season.

This downturn significantly trails behind the UK’s general monthly inflation rate of 3%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, highlighting the financial pressures facing businesses and consumers. However, takeaway and click-and-collect orders saw a modest 2.1% increase, marking six consecutive months of year-on-year growth—an encouraging turnaround after nearly a year of decline.

A Seasonal Spending Shift

The January slowdown aligns with broader seasonal spending patterns in the hospitality sector. The CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, which monitors a different set of managed groups, recorded a 1.3% drop in overall sales compared to January 2024. This marks a sharp reversal from the 3.2% growth recorded in December, when consumers preferred dining out to celebrate Christmas rather than for deliveries.

Despite the dip, total sales, including revenue from new restaurant openings, increased by 6.6%, suggesting some resilience in the sector. However, the mixed performance raises questions about the sustainability of delivery growth in an environment where consumers are increasingly cautious with their spending.

Takeaway Convenience Gains Traction

Commenting on the findings, Karl Chessell, Director – Hospitality Operators and Food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, noted that the post-holiday dip was expected after heightened spending in December.

“After some consumers splurged on meals and drinks out over Christmas, it is little surprise to see a levelling-off in January. Nevertheless, it is a disappointing start to what will be another challenging year for restaurants, especially with key costs like labour and energy set to rise,” Chessell explained.

He also highlighted a notable shift in consumer behaviour, suggesting that the cost-conscious diner may prioritise takeaway and click-and-collect options over premium-priced deliveries. “With so many consumers still feeling the pinch on disposable incomes, we can expect to see this trend continue through 2025,” he added.

What Lies Ahead for the Industry?

The hospitality sector now faces an uncertain path. While the steady growth in takeaway sales offers a glimmer of hope, the broader economic climate remains tough. Rising operational costs, shifts in consumer preferences, and ongoing inflationary pressures will likely shape the trajectory of restaurant sales in the coming months.

For restaurant operators, adapting to evolving customer habits—whether through more cost-effective takeaway models, strategic pricing, or enhanced in-store experiences—may be key to navigating the challenges ahead.