How June’s Heatwave Scorched Greggs’ Profits
Posted by Emma on 2nd Jul 2025 Reading Time:
Britain’s beloved bakery chain Greggs has found itself at the mercy of the elements this summer, as an unseasonably hot June drove down footfall and prompted a rare profit warning. Despite positive growth earlier in the year, the UK’s record-breaking temperatures have left the company grappling with stalling sales and investor jitters.
From Sizzle to Slump: The Heatwave’s Impact
In its first-half trading update, Greggs revealed that while like-for-like sales in its 2,085 directly managed outlets rose by 2.6%, this marked a significant drop from the 7.1% growth recorded in the same period last year. The heatwave that swept across the UK in June was a key factor. With temperatures soaring to 34.7°C in parts of the country, the usual appetite for warm pastries cooled dramatically.
Footfall fell as consumers avoided high-street visits in sweltering weather, and although cold drink sales rose, they were not enough to offset the decline in bakery purchases. “When customers flake in the heat, flaky bakes aren’t first choice on the menu,” noted Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown. This shift in consumer behaviour hit hard, especially after a promising May where iced drinks, viral macaroni cheese dishes, and pizza boxes had driven momentum.
A Billion in Sales – But Caution Ahead
Despite the slowdown, Greggs still posted a respectable £1.027 billion in total sales for the 26 weeks ending 28 June 2025 – an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. It also continued its aggressive expansion strategy, opening 87 new locations and closing 56, reaffirming its target of 140–150 net openings for the full year.
However, the bakery giant warned that “current trading conditions” could result in full-year operating profits coming in “modestly below that achieved in 2024”. The markets responded swiftly, with Greggs shares tumbling over 13%—hitting their lowest levels since 2020 and taking their year-to-date losses to more than 38%.
Climate and Consumer Change: A Warning for the Sector?
Greggs’ challenges shine a light on a broader issue facing the UK’s food retail sector: shifting consumer preferences underextreme weather conditions. While warm weather has traditionally boosted sales of cold items, it also reshapes consumer routines. Shopping trips are delayed or avoided altogether, especially for products perceived as heavy or indulgent.
The bakery’s reliance on classic hot offerings like sausage rolls may have worked against it during the heatwave. The data signals that the climate’s volatility could increasingly dictate sales trends. For a high-street operator with ambitions of rapid expansion, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity.
Looking Forward: Weathering Future Storms
Greggs now faces the dual task of shoring up short-term investor confidence while adapting to longer-term shifts in consumer behaviour. Its recent innovations—such as expanding cold menu offerings and embracing viral food trends—may be key to building resilience.
But the June heatwave may serve as a cautionary tale for all retailers: climate, once an externality, is now a core business variable.