Meal Deals and New Ventures: Greggs Reports 6.1% Sales Growth

Greggs, the UK’s high street bakery chain, has reported sales growth of 6.1% in the third quarter of 2025, despite a weaker performance during July. The company attributed the dip to unusually high temperatures, which it said reduced appetite for traditional products such as pastries and hot snacks. Trading recovered in August and September, with like-for-like sales at company-managed shops rising by 1.5% compared to the same period in 2024.

The business is increasingly leaning on value-driven meal deals to appeal to a wider range of customers. Its £5 “Big Deal” bundles a sandwich or salad with a drink or side and now includes healthier options such as egg pots, protein shakes and sourdough toasties. This mirrors strategies from rivals such as Pret A Manger, which have also turned to meal deals as a way of strengthening lunchtime trade.

Store expansion remains central to Greggs’ plans. So far this year, the company has opened 130 shops and closed 73, with relocations accounting for more than half of the closures. The result is 57 net new openings, and the chain expects to achieve around 120 by the end of the year, slightly fewer than previously estimated. Longer-term ambitions include targeting areas the company considers “under-penetrated” and relocating smaller outlets to higher-footfall locations. At present, Greggs operates more than 2,000 company-managed shops alongside nearly 600 franchised sites.

Despite the sales growth, market observers have noted some warning signs. Like-for-like sales growth slowed from 2.6% in the first half of the year to 1.5% in the third quarter, leading some analysts to suggest volume losses may be masked by price increases. Costs have also been a significant challenge, although the company says pressures are easing slightly, with overall profit guidance unchanged.

Shares in Greggs (LSE: GRG) rose by 6.2% following the update, a reaction some linked to the absence of further downgrades. Jonathan Pritchard, analyst at Peel Hunt, commented that while July trading was difficult, the recovery in subsequent months reassured investors. He also noted the sizeable short interest in the stock, meaning markets may have been relieved that results were not worse.

However, questions remain over the pace and scope of Greggs’ expansion. Critics argue that rapid growth risks diluting the brand and complicating operations. These concerns intensified with the opening of Greggs’ first pub in Newcastle upon Tyne, serving locally brewed beer alongside Greggs-inspired dishes. The move forms part of a broader strategy to diversify menus and extend opening hours into the evening with options such as pizzas, hot baguettes and chicken goujons.

Once considered a clear winner during the cost-of-living crisis, Greggs faces a more uncertain consumer environment. Rising costs, including employer National Insurance increases, continue to weigh on the business. Analysts warn that while price increases have supported sales growth so far, customer tolerance may be stretched if costs continue to rise.

As Greggs moves towards its target of 3,000 outlets, the company finds itself at a crossroads: balancing innovation and expansion against investor caution and fragile consumer confidence.