Rain, Russia, and the Rising Pound: What’s Shaping UK Wheat Markets?

Wheat prices in the UK have softened this past week, with May 2025 LIFFE feed wheat futures closing at £170.00 per tonne—down £2.50 on the week and £1.00 since the last market update. November contracts weren’t spared either, dipping £1.60 to settle at £186.00/t. Although the recent trend is downward, prices still sit marginally above where they were in the last full market report. So, what’s fuelling this drop?

Homegrown Pressures

Closer to home, a cocktail of factors is putting the brakes on UK wheat prices. The 2025 domestic crop is pegged at 12.5 million tonnes—up a solid 12% on last year’s total. While that’s still shy of the five-year average (13.9 million tonnes), it’s enough to take the edge off import demand. With more homegrown supply, fewer imports are needed, taking some of the urgency—and upward pressure—off prices.

Meanwhile, sterling’s recent strength hasn’t helped the export side of the equation. A stronger pound makes British wheat pricier on the world stage, pushing our product down the pecking order for international buyers. That’s not great news for traders hoping to shift surplus grain abroad. But it’s not all gloom.

Watch the Weather

Wheat markets are notoriously sensitive to weather, and the UK is very much in a “weather market” right now. Until recently, dry conditions were raising concerns—but recent rainfall has brought some relief. Still, as any farmer will tell you, timing is everything, and variability remains a big unknown. That uncertainty could lend support to prices if weather conditions remain unpredictable.

On top of that, international developments could offer a helping hand to UK prices. Lower wheat plantings in the US and potential export restrictions from big producers mean the UK might benefit from tighter global supply, even if our cupboards are better stocked this season.

A Global Tug of War

Step outside the UK, and it’s clear the market is being pushed and pulled by global forces. Russia, as ever, is a heavyweight. Its wheat exports have been aggressively competitive recently, dragging down European prices. Following recent rainfall, the improved outlook for Russian crops has only intensified this pressure. However, drought-stricken regions remain a concern, and the final condition of the Russian harvest will be key in the coming weeks.

France, too, has brightened the picture with an estimated 10% increase in soft wheat planting area over last year. That’s bolstered European supply expectations and added to the bearish tone.

Across the Atlantic, the USDA reports that just under half of the US winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition. Drought is affecting nearly a third of it, so all eyes are on the US weather forecast—which currently promises beneficial rainfall. That expectation is already weighing on prices globally.

Tariffs, Turbulence, and Trade

Agricultural commodities like wheat often fare better than most during trade wars or periods of economic upheaval. Why? Simple: food is essential. Demand stays relatively steady, even when the financial seas get choppy.

Even so, commodities aren’t immune to shocks. Like China’s recent 15% duty on US wheat and corn, retaliatory tariffs disrupt trade flows and hurt specific producers. However, the global nature of these markets means the grain usually finds a new home, albeit sometimes at a lower price.

For example, US soybean growers have lost ground to Brazil after years of trade tension with China. It’s a reminder that even if global demand holds, individual countries can lose out.

Looking Ahead

Markets will be watching UK weather patterns closely in the coming weeks, along with developments in Russia and the US. With the pound still firm and UK supplies rebounding, we’ll likely see a cautious mood persist—though any sharp changes in global conditions could quickly flip the narrative.

In short, expect a bumpy ride, but don’t take your eyes off the forecast.