Strong Crops, Weak Demand: What’s Next for UK Wheat?

Despite weather worries and shifting trade dynamics, the wheat market continues to trend downward, with the UK following suit. It’s a tale of two harvests—healthy domestic crops versus a world market still trying to find its feet.

The November 2025 LIFFE feed wheat futures closed at £182.60 per tonne, down £4.30 from the last report. Meanwhile, the May 2025 contract settled at £161.30 per tonne, though it’s worth noting that this particular contract has seen minimal trading activity. Low liquidity can lead to wider bid-ask spreads and greater price volatility, making it less reliable as a benchmark.

UK Focus: Weather, Crops & Currency

The UK market drifted lower for much of last week, although a slight recovery was noted on Friday. On the ground, conditions are looking favourable. Recent updates from AHDB suggest UK wheat production could reach around 13.1 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season. That projection factors in a 5% area adjustment based on the Early Bird Survey and considers average yields from the past five years. If imports remain steady, UK supply levels may return to more ‘normal’ territory.

But while strong crops are reassuring, they’re also helping to suppress prices. The stronger euro, propped up by ongoing uncertainty surrounding US economic policy under the Trump administration, is adding to the pressure by making European wheat less competitive globally.

Global Influences: Plenty of Wheat, Not Enough Clarity

The international picture is equally complex. The International Grains Council forecasts a record global wheat production of 806.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, a 1.1% rise from last year. But that’s matched by growing consumption, meaning we could still see tighter ending stocks than expected.

Several key global developments are reinforcing bearish sentiment:

• Russia continues to sell wheat aggressively. Recent rains have boosted confidence in their crop, which is dragging prices down further.
• In the US, winter wheat conditions have improved thanks to timely rainfall and softening prices.
• South America is also experiencing favourable weather, particularly in Brazil, which has helped ease fears over maize and soybean crops and added weight to feed grain prices.
• France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, is expected to plant 10% more soft wheat than last year—another factor depressing EU-wide prices.

On the other hand, China is throwing a wildcard into the mix. The country is planning to reduce grain content in livestock feed to 60% and cut soymeal usage to 10%, with the aim of lessening its dependency on imported soybeans—especially those from the US. That move could reshape demand fundamentals globally.

Still, not all is rosy. China, the world’s largest wheat producer, is now facing drought concerns in its northern regions. While Water Minister Li Guoying has warned of worsening conditions, the market response has been muted. In fact, Chicago wheat futures fell again, with the July 2025 contract down 1.0%, setting new contract lows.

Looking Ahead

As we edge closer to harvest windows in the Northern Hemisphere, the wheat market remains caught between robust supply signals and shaky demand outlooks. For UK traders and growers, the coming weeks will likely bring more clarity, especially if weather conditions continue to cooperate and geopolitical tensions don’t take a sharp turn. But for now, the bear remains firmly in place.