UK Harvest Hurdles: Navigating the Challenges of Cereal and Oilseed Production

In a year marked by challenging weather and shifting market dynamics, the UK’s cereal and oilseed sectors have faced notable obstacles. The 2024 harvest saw a significant downturn, with wheat production dipping by 20% due to adverse weather conditions. This contraction has led to a growing dependency on imported grains, particularly those of higher protein milling quality.

The latest forecasts suggest that wheat imports will rise to 2.75 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year, reflecting a 13% increase as domestic production struggles to meet demand. Although there is cautious optimism for a modest recovery in 2025—with projections estimating a crop of 12.5 million tonnes, which would represent a 12% increase over the previous year—this figure still falls short of the five-year average of 13.9 million tonnes.

Parallel to the challenges in the cereal sector, oilseed rape production has also taken a significant hit. The 2024 figures reveal a 32% drop, reducing output to 824 thousand tonnes, a decline attributed to both a sharp reduction in planted area and disappointing yields. Looking ahead to 2025, the Early Bird Survey indicates that the cultivated area for oilseed rape will further contract by 17%, reaching the smallest level seen in 42 years. Production is expected to range between 643 and 912 thousand tonnes, depending on yield variations. Consequently, the UK will have to increase its reliance on imports to satisfy domestic demand, with forecasted import levels rising to 875 thousand tonnes, up from 743 thousand tonnes.

Price dynamics have also been affected. Limited global and domestic supplies have provided a cushion for oilseed rape prices, with the spot domestic delivered price into Erith experiencing an increase of over 23% from January 2024 to January 2025. However, market pressures from global competitors—particularly Brazil’s robust soybean production—could temper further price increases in the medium to long term.

Global weather patterns and geopolitical instability continue to cast a long shadow over both the cereal and oilseed markets. Production challenges in key exporting regions such as the EU and the Black Sea are expected to sustain support for global prices in the near term, an effect that is likely to influence domestic market conditions as well.

Industry expert Olivia Bonser, a senior market analyst at AHDB, encapsulated the situation: 2024 has been a particularly challenging year for UK producers. She notes that the decline in domestic productivity has not only increased reliance on imports but also occurred at a time when global market uncertainty is high. Although there are tentative signs of a recovery—especially for wheat—the combined effect of reduced domestic output and competitive import prices creates an environment of caution among farmers. While short-term price support is anticipated due to tight supplies, the longer-term outlook remains unpredictable amidst evolving weather patterns, trade dynamics, and international competition.