​Wheat Market Update: Insights from the November Landscape

The wheat market has witnessed significant developments this month, shaped by geopolitical tensions, weather conditions, and shifting consumer demand. This report explores key factors influencing wheat prices and production, providing an objective analysis for industry stakeholders.

Market Trends

Wheat prices have trended downwards over the past month, reflecting a complex interplay of global events. The European market temporarily rose last Friday as tensions escalated between Ukraine and Russia. However, the absence of disruptions to Black Sea grain exports has kept upward price movements in check.

Winter Wheat Drilling Progress

Winter wheat drilling has progressed efficiently this season despite a delayed start. Unlike last year, when excessive rainfall hindered operations, favourable conditions have allowed for timely sowing. This improvement could positively impact the 2024 crop yield, assuming the cooperative weather.

Supply and Variety Challenges

The availability of soft wheat continues to be a concern, leading to higher premiums. The 2023 variety, Skyscraper, experienced widespread disease issues, reducing planting for the 2024 season. The introduction of a new variety, Bamford, in 2025 is anticipated to mitigate these shortages.

Imports Easing Price Pressures

Large-scale wheat imports from Europe and Canada have alleviated pressure on the domestic market following this year’s smaller harvest. Milling wheat premiums have sharply declined, dropping from £50/tonne on 25th October to £42/tonne as of 25th November, largely due to these imports.

Consumer and Farmer Sentiments

Demand for wheat remains weak among consumers, adding to market pressures. Farmers, dissatisfied with current price levels, are hesitant to release their stocks, potentially constraining supply in the short term.

Quality Insights from the AHDB Survey

The AHDB’s 2024 Cereal Quality Survey highlights some key metrics:

• Protein Content: Group 1 wheat averages 12.5% protein, below the 13.0% milling threshold and the lowest since 2014.
• Specific Weight: At 77.8kg/hl, this year’s specific weight exceeds milling requirements and last year’s figure (75.8kg/hl) but falls slightly below the five-year average.
• Hagberg Falling Numbers (HFN): Group 1 wheat averages 343 seconds, marking a notable improvement from 2023 and outperforming the five-year average by 32 seconds.

French Winter Wheat Planting Reaches New Highs

In Europe, expectations for France’s 2025 winter wheat crop are optimistic, with planting reaching record levels. 90% of fields have been planted, surpassing the five-year average of 87%. This rapid pace reflects favourable weather and robust planning by French farmers.