Wheat prices hold steady as record global harvest reshapes the market

The latest wheat market update paints a picture of abundant global supply, shifting trade dynamics and a UK market cushioned by currency movements. For businesses in hospitality and the fish and chip industry, these trends matter. Wheat is at the heart of flour, batter mixes, breading, bakery items and many everyday staples served across the sector. Keeping a close eye on market conditions can help operators plan ahead with confidence.

Global supply continues to surge

November 2025 has been broadly bearish in the global wheat market. According to the International Grains Council, world wheat production is expected to reach a record 819 million tonnes, a figure echoed by the USDA’s projections for the 2025–26 season. The USDA also expects global ending stocks to rise to 271.4 million tonnes, the first year-on-year increase since 2019 to 2020.

This growth in supply is not limited to one region.

• The EU soft wheat harvest is forecast to reach 136.4 million tonnes, significantly higher than last season’s weather-affected crop.

• Russia is expected to produce around the mid-80 million tonne range, with some forecasts pushing closer to 90 million tonnes.

• Australia is set for one of its strongest outputs on record, at around 34 to 35 million tonnes.

• Canada is forecast at roughly 35 million tonnes, although wet weather has compromised the quality of some durum wheat.

• Argentina continues to show a positive outlook, despite frost and heavy rain creating uncertainty in southern regions.

These rising production levels present a clear reality: global wheat supply is more than comfortable. For hospitality businesses, this typically signals stable pricing for key inputs over the medium term.

Market volatility driven by speculation, not shortage

Despite strong fundamentals, futures markets have been volatile. Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures rose around 5.6% in November due to speculative trading, much of it linked to rumours of US–China trade activity. Although there was talk of improved buying interest from China, actual purchases remained modest. Reports indicate that China bought only 120,000 tonnes of US wheat for December delivery – the first purchase since October of the previous year.

This speculative movement briefly lifted prices, though the underlying pressure of abundant supply quickly reasserted itself. Operators should understand that short-term price bumps driven by market chatter do not necessarily reflect long-term wheat cost trends.

The UK market remains resilient

Back home, UK wheat production for 2025 is estimated at around 11.8 million tonnes, an increase of roughly 6% on the previous year. While this is still lower than the five-year average, industry briefings highlight better grain quality and strong volumes suitable for breadmaking. That is good news for bakeries, fish and chip shops and foodservice operators who rely on consistent flour performance.

A key factor supporting UK prices is the weaker pound. Sterling has slipped to around 1.31–1.32 against the US dollar and 0.88 against the euro, its weakest level against the euro in more than two years. A softer pound makes imports more expensive and UK wheat more attractive to overseas buyers, effectively putting a floor under domestic prices.

For hospitality businesses, this means the UK market is less exposed to the downward pressure seen in the US and EU futures markets. Prices may not fall dramatically, but they remain stable, predictable and relatively affordable in a long-term context.

What this means for hospitality, bakeries and fish and chip shops

1. Cost stability looks likely

Record global supply creates a buffer against sudden spikes. While currency movements will continue to play a role, the fundamentals point to stable wheat prices for the months ahead.

2. Quality remains strong

UK wheat quality is reported as generally good, with plenty of grain meeting breadmaking standards. Consistency in flour and batter performance should therefore remain reliable across the sector.

3. Import pressures may increase

A weaker pound could increase costs on imported wheat-based products. Operators reliant on foreign flour or specialist ingredients should monitor supplier updates closely.

4. Planning ahead becomes easier

With global stocks rising and weather risks easing for now, hospitality businesses can build purchasing strategies with a sensible degree of certainty. This is particularly valuable for operators managing tight margins.