Wheat Prices Slide as Global Peace Talks Ease Market Tensions

Wheat markets continue to experience significant downward pressure in the UK and internationally as geopolitical shifts and favourable weather forecasts combine to reshape expectations for 2025. Here’s a summary of what’s behind the recent market movement.

UK Market: Prices Sink to New Lows

As of 26 March 2025, UK feed wheat futures for May 2025 settled at a contract low of £169.00 per tonne—down £10.00 since 10 March. The November 2025 contract also fell to £187.25 per tonne. This dip reflects a broader trend, dampening market sentiment by oversupply and improving weather conditions.

According to the latest data, High Protein wheat (AMJ 25) dropped from £206.00/t to £194.50/t, while Low Protein wheat dipped slightly to £197.00/t. Even Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat fell to £271.00/t.

The price drop is partly due to a reported increase in UK wheat planting. Favourable autumn conditions allowed farmers to expand the wheat area to around 1.6 million hectares—potentially yielding a crop of 12.5 million tonnes, assuming average yields of 7.8 tonnes per hectare. However, whether this is achieved depends on how the weather holds up during this key growing phase.

Global Market: Geopolitics & Weather Weigh Heavy

International wheat and corn prices have also dipped. The breakthrough deal involving Russia and Ukraine was a significant factor mediated by the US. The agreement aims to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, removing the lingering risk premium since the Ukraine war outbreak.

“Russia and Ukraine agreed… to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes,” said a White House statement.

In return, the US will help Russia regain access to global agricultural markets, including reducing maritime insurance costs and improving port access for fertiliser and grain shipments.

Although both countries have limited wheat stocks available for export this season, the sense of reduced geopolitical risk alone was enough to nudge global futures lower.

Weather Adds to Pressure

Weather forecasts now predict rainfall across the Black Sea region. After a period of dry conditions, this expected precipitation could support winter crop development as spring gets underway.

The market outlook has turned bearish with a stronger US dollar—making American grain more expensive on the world stage. Export demand is cooling, particularly in key regions like North Africa and the Middle East, where price sensitivity is high.

Market Outlook: What to Watch

• Weather Conditions: The UK crop is at a sensitive growth stage. Prolonged dry or wet spells could swing sentiment.

• Export Dynamics: Watch how the Black Sea corridor deal unfolds and how insurers and shippers respond.

• Currency Movements: A stronger dollar could pressure US exports, shifting demand to other origins.

For now, markets remain soft. But the picture could change quickly with so many moving parts—from geopolitics to rainfall.