#236: The Ceres Podsquad tackles VAT, fish prices, and reality

If you work in fish and chips or hospitality, Episode 236 of The Ceres Podcast Podsquad lands at exactly the right time. With Christmas looming and trading pressure high, Stelios Theocharous, David Nicolaou and Mark Petrou strip away wishful thinking and talk bluntly about what business owners can actually control. The result is a lively, opinionated episode that mixes humour with hard lessons on risk, regulation, pricing, and the future of the category.   

A relaxed start with a serious undercurrent

The episode opens in classic Podsquad style: informal banter, film talk, and a nod to two absent regulars. David Miller’s Christmas message sets a warm tone, while the hosts joke about being a “posse” rather than a squad and riff about modern attention spans and “two screen viewing.” It is light and funny, but it also tees up a wider theme about how habits and culture change over time, a thread they later pull into fish and chips itself.    

Theme 1: risk you cannot ignore, even when you do everything right

Stelios shares a story many operators will recognise: a busy Black Friday week, only to discover the business bank account had been frozen without warning. Payments failed silently, suppliers went unpaid, and only after chasing did the team learn the account had been put on stop due to compliance checks and a wrongly switched-off profile. The detail that no errors showed in the banking app makes the story especially unsettling for any owner relying on smooth cash flow.  

Mark then tops it with a cautionary tale that feels almost unreal, but is delivered plainly. After a missed Companies House confirmation statement, his company was struck off and assets automatically transferred to the Crown. He describes losing land, building plots, a house, and cash, plus the slow, expensive process to win them back. The sheer scale of the consequences from what he describes as a “belt and braces paper exercise” makes for one of the episode’s most gripping moments.   

The point is not drama for drama’s sake. It is a real-world reminder that compliance failures, or even administrative mistakes by others, can cripple a business overnight. As Mark puts it, if that money had been all he had, “the wheels would have fallen off” his business.  

Theme 2: waiting for government is not a strategy

The episode’s core debate starts when Stelios references his recent article asking whether hoping for government help is holding businesses back. He argues that the sector expends huge energy on VAT cuts and political campaigns, often driven by high fish prices, while the harder work of shaping a resilient business model gets sidelined. He boils it down simply: focus on your own business first, and treat any policy change as a bonus.   

Mark agrees, framing it in practical terms. National issues matter, but they cannot be the foundation of a plan. Operators must concentrate on controllables: overheads, costs, and a model suited to their own market. His training philosophy carries across: do not clone someone else’s approach, use knowledge to become the best version of your own business.  

David Nicolaou sharpens the argument further. He does not dismiss the desire for VAT relief, but he says plainly that no rescue is coming soon, and that hoping for it is like standing on a sinking ship waiting for someone else to patch the hole. With debt and structural issues in the wider economy, he sees a VAT windfall for hospitality as unrealistic in the near term.  

For owners who feel trapped between rising costs and customer resistance, this conversation lands as both uncomfortable and useful. It pushes listeners to separate what is emotionally satisfying to demand from what is operationally necessary to do.

Theme 3: cod, affordability, and a changing market

From VAT and government, the discussion pivots to the real driver behind today’s pressures: fish price inflation. Stelios points out that VAT cut campaigns surge when cod, haddock, or potatoes spike, which suggests the industry is reacting to symptoms rather than causes. In his view, “…we have a fish problem,” not a VAT problem, and the “hose is pointed at the wrong fire.”   

Mark takes that logic to a provocative place: perhaps cod no longer deserves a default place on fish and chip shop menus. He describes a generational shift, saying fish and chips historically thrived as affordable food for the masses. With cod pricing now pushing beyond what many communities can or will pay, he wonders if the category must detach from the idea of “cod and chips” and return to “fish and chips,” backed by more affordable species. He even suggests that if everyone moved together, cod would quickly become a restaurant-only choice rather than a takeaway staple.  

Stelios disagrees, but not lazily. He accepts cod is premium, compares boycotting it to boycotting luxury brands, and argues that demand should decide. His main critique is operational: replacing cod with fresh haddock may solve one margin problem while introducing worse volatility, because haddock prices fluctuate daily and more severely. He stresses that any strategic shift needs stability, not another moving target.   

David brings it back to trading reality. In his shop, they price cod, haddock, and saithe so customers choose based on value, and they manage risk by offering tiers rather than forcing a single species switch. It is a grounded counterpoint to the all-or-nothing options that can dominate industry chatter.  

For listeners, this segment is gold. It is not a tidy agreement, but a model of how experienced operators think through menu strategy, market positioning, and customer psychology under cost pressure.

Memorable moments and tone

Even in serious segments, the Podsquad’s tone stays human. Stelios casually admits to driving a forklift into shutters and instantly calculating the cost of the mistake, a small anecdote that underscores how quickly owners internalise risk.  

Mark’s stunned line about losing assets to “the crown, as in the king?” captures how surreal modern compliance power can feel, and the group’s back-and-forth about it keeps the listener engaged instead of overwhelmed.  

And one simple exchange crystallises the episode’s main takeaway. Mark says, “Hoping for help isn’t a plan.” Stelios responds, “Hope isn’t a business plan.” It is blunt, memorable, and very hard to argue with.